December 11, 2023

Tropical Storm Brett formed in the Atlantic yesterday in what could be the earliest storm to form in the east so far, with experts saying unusual sea surface temperatures in the basin fueled the storm.

Tropical Storm Brett has been heading west toward the Caribbean with the Lesser Antilles within its line of sight and winds are expected to pick up as it approaches.

Some hurricane forecasting models show Hurricane Brett approaching the Antilles, but still a strengthening storm, although most models are now picking it to remain Tropical Storm Brett, but still getting stronger as it approaches.

The National Hurricane Center has now slightly lowered its forecast, no longer selecting Brett to achieve hurricane status as it approaches the Caribbean Sea.

That means there is some uncertainty about whether Tropical Storm Brett will strengthen much, or whether it will strengthen beyond the Antilles and in the Caribbean itself.

Tropical Storm Brett currently has sustained winds of just 40 mph with stronger gusts. Below you can view Tropical Storm Brett’s current location and its forecast track.

Tropical Storm Brett or Hurricane Brett, Forecast Track and Tracking Map

The NHC is warning of rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across the region, with up to 10 inches possible for parts of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia.

The NHC forecasts that Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines could see 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Such heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in higher-lying areas, and isolated urban flooding is also thought to be a possibility.

According to the latest forecast, winds may reach moderate to severe tropical storm intensity, which may be lower than that required for any parametric insurance contract to be effective.

At this stage, Brett seems more likely than wind to threaten water-related damage, as long as it doesn’t intensify faster than the NHC’s predictive models currently predict.

track 2023 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season On our dedicated page we will notify you of any new information.

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