December 9, 2023

Two competing factors will drive the conversation on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and risks. But there are other important areas of insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests that should remain vigilant, According to Jeff Waters of Moody’s RMS.

jeff-waters-moodys-rms-hurricane-jun-2023Jeff Waters is a meteorologist and has been the product lead for the RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Model since 2018.He has been with the company for over a decade, primarily in hurricane modeling and Join us for a video interview to discuss the official start of the hurricane season.

Commenting on the projections we reported, Waters said, “Most projections tend to focus on two competing factors, the first being the state of ENSO and the other being sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin, which continue to Well above average.

“So you’ve got two different competing programs going on, and I think in many cases, the forecasts coming out this season, almost all expect those two programs to cancel each other out to some extent.”

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He went on to explain the uncertainty this creates Still, especially because of the timing, he said, “some of the forecasts that have been released recently have started to deviate from the average range out there, so that certainly points to some uncertainty that could be in the next four to six months, especially if One of those signals, whether it’s the state of the basin in terms of sea surface temperature, or the transition to an El Niño state, if either happens earlier or later than expected.

“Or El Niño may not be as strong as currently projected, which could have a direct impact on hurricane activity and the total number of named storms this season.”

Waters went on to discuss how these climate signals translate into immediate risk of U.S. landfall, what insurance, reinsurance and ILS markets should be watching closely, and how to consider the latest risk modeling tools that can assist in analyzing this season’s hurricane risk.

watch full video Get more insights on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from Moody’s RMS’ Jeff Waters.

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